Maynter socials

PW-Index(Political Weight index)

Political weight or PW index is an fundamental index that shown us geopolitical & Eco-political situation of countries. “PW” index formed of some independent variable like as geopolitical, mental, economic and political variable. In fact this set of variable is similar variable that country made of thats. “PW” index by quantification of qualitative entity, trying study some procedure changes and phenomena like as state behavior, population reaction and macroeconomic factors in countries. Then so by PW index we can make anticipation for country behavior. “PW” index first time defined and developed in MAYNTER (virtual center) by dr.maysam araee daronkola.

PW index, is an fundamental index for study and surveying political, economic, Population and territorial situation of countries. PW index and its variable shown us state elements condition in time line and in a period time. This element consists of territory, population and government capability. it should be noted that in PW index, comparison of states with together is not right Compare, unless PW index surveying with other subsidiaries variable share in the structure of PW index such as GW index and more…

PW index formula (PW regression):

Or

That:

PW = political weight
LPC = land per capita(per person)
GW = Indicator of government ability or  governmental weight
B = Budget per capita (Per capita budget spending by government for one person on average)
Cp = Concentration of power = Power concentration indicator
Δt  Governance Stability Index
L = Land = the area of the state-state (including land and territorial waters) 
P = Population

Government, population and territory are traditional and fundamental elements that countries made up of its, then in PW index Quantize and qualifying these elements, then we will study countries situation.

One of the important weaknesses of political science and so, international relations and international law is that all of them has low ability for multidimensional and comprehensive  view to the subjects or events. Maybe it’s raised from human intellect. Then we must use of logical form for studying any events and describe countries situation or condition. We think that mathematics in normal type and non-extreme form can help us for describe the countries condition in common form.

GW-Index (Governmental Weight index

Governmental weight or government capability index is another index’s that illustrated political, economic and security situation of countries for us. “GW” index defined for explain power and capability of government. This index consists of economic, political, security and time variable. the purpose of “GW” index, assessment of government capability via scalar quantity. “GW” index developed in MAYNTER. This index like “PW” index defined and developed by dr.maysam araee daronkola.

GW index. Is the fundamental index for assessment of country Eco political potency. GW index shown us government power in comparison with other state government. GW highest rank is 100 and the least is 0. GW index shows as well as the status of political system by three vital factors that consist of budget, concentration of power and lifetime of government. In normal situation GW volatility depend on economic variable.

LPC: Land Per Capita

This is inverse type of aggregation. If “L” mark of land and “P” mark of population, then lane per capita accounting with :

LPC one of the basic element for accounting of political weight index. LPC explain the land capacity and its potentials based on population units. Whatever the size of LPC is bigger, then the chance of land resource enjoyment is better. In return, if LPC is big (for example bigger than of 10 m^2) the chance of human resource is lower. The units for counting of LPC based on cubic square meter.

The high LPC (if land overspread in several longitude and latitude look like Russia, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, USA and etc.. ) maybe the sign of high land resource like as  mineral and petroleum(except Freshwater).

The countries with low LPC generally poor in raw material (look like UK, Germany, Israel, Belgium, and Japan).  This countries need obtained their needs from other country.  (Most of countries with low LPC have a enough freshwater and high population).  And at the history, many of them is colonialist and aggressor.  In fact their behavior reflex of their position which include (high human resource + low raw material + enough Freshwater). In the 21 century most of countries with LPC lower than of 10 (of course has a exception) is a rich country. then, Maybe we can estates our present situation is the result of historical enjoyment of resource.

High population means the good human resource, then if LPC is  low  it’s lead to human resource  make the society elements connections better than of countries with high LPC.  And of course they had use and make infrastructure better than off other countries.  In fact low LPC lead to increasing and appropriate the infrastructure efficiency.

Most country with low LPC by focus on their possibilities has a high GW (governmental weight), look like most European  and little country.  In LPC suppose that the rule of every human is equal with others.  But in fact it’s not true.  Because for different  position of any human in the society, not equal distribution of budget  between them and not equal use of land resource (for any reason), any human rule in the network of society is different and unbalance with others.

In LPC and “b” (budget per capita) we suppose that everyone gaining equal share with others.  If it’s happening and anybody cannot make money or make a service upper than of their share of budget, it’s abnormal and we can estate this society have population attack (like heart attack).

High LPC sign of low GW. These countries are Weak in human resource.  Then the development of this country is unbalance in the area of land. (Of course it has exception like Canada, Australia)

GW index formula (governmental weight):

GW or governmental weight is an index for explanation of government ability.  GW index as the other type of the PW index multiples with LPC.  Three components that GW founded by them as follows:

B: Budget size index

Δt: Governance Sustainability Index

Cp: Concentration of power index

It can also be called the governmental weight, which is obtained from the following formula:

Low GW index can result of corruption (political, Economical, systematic) or don’t use of science or don’t using a human resource.  The countries GW index can comparison with others.  Anyway, the GW index shown as the government ability in the state.  The structure of this index formed and counted of 100.  Then whatever this index nearest to 100 thereupon their ability for working and management is better, especially in politics and economy. We must know GW is not good index for military comparison between states.

The weight of GW in the structure of PW index must be at least half of it.  In fact if at least GW shares in PW structure half of it, then we can estates; this country can use its geopolitical reality.  For example if the country LPC equal with 20 m^2, GW index share must be in PW index shape half of PW index number. For this purpose we can extract second root of GW index in the structure of pw index. It can be obtaining follows:

For example, in Britain, if suppose that a political weight equal to 255 and a governing weight is 69.68 and a LPC is 3.23, the share of to LPC (geopolitical realties) in the structure of PW equal to %23/70 and the share of GW index in the structure of PW equal to % 76/32. This means that the land occupation factor in the formation of political weight is nearly three times lower than the GW index or governmental weight. As a result, territorial issues and crises do not easily reduce British political weight.

One of the key usages of GW index is that we can find who increasing PW and GW index and what’s the reason of the decline of them.  In fact by take third root of GW index we can find important problem of countries and finding that which one of it component are unbalance.  For example we can see the problem of countries belonged to which one of sovereignty or budget size index or mental issues. So if we find that the problems rise from economy and budget size, how much they need money for solving it.

We must know in the GW index the budget size index is the most variable Factor in comparison with CP and delta T index.  Our studies show us the share of each component in GW index in different country is very different with others. For example, in Russia CP (authority) has a main   rule in GW index. In UK and Germany B and ∆T has main rule.  In the United States all component rule is very near to with others.

GW whatever is big, but it cannot play out of geopolitical reality. Thus, if LPC in a country is very low, then this country trying for recovering it from external resource (from other countries or from others land).  It’s mean that any country for keep up or upgrade pw, inevitably turning to colonialism or aggression. Of course in right way this country inevitably turning and shifting to international trade or foreign investment.  In the present-day WTO system is a legal solution for solving a countries with high GW and low LPC.  This reason explained USA and UK behavior in two last centuries.

B index or (budget size index):

Budget size index that we sign it by B, show us the people share of budget in comparison with best number of budget in index country at the under review year.  By this index we can comparison all country situations in size of national budget.  B index is one of the vital variable of GW index.

The budget in the countries and their normal size of it, must be based on geopolitical and population reality. this index shows us population and government political economy relation.  We cannot take into account the national budget only as an economical quantity.  Because, in all over it, the relation between people and government is obvious.  The national budget explains payment and expense of state for everyone that living in the territory of that State. It is means that the political system how much spend for survival and development of political Society.

our reason for using of budget, as a one of the component in GW index is that, the soft power type of relation and economical relation between people and government is a vital qualitative Factor, and that government can has a good relation with population that, can has a common and key role in people live and  livelihood. when a country has a good management in budget per capita, can increase the economic efficiency of population.  Also budget has in itself, the summary and reflects of cultural, political, livelihood, military, security, judicial and welfare program of the State.

For computing of budget size index, If “b” the mark of National budget and “p” the mark of population, then b/p show us budget per capita. For achieve a common goals, we must change national budget to any of international currency. Maynter use of US dollar for this purpose. Then following function show us bpc:

In next step we must find best BPC in a year, we suppose that this number must possible and better BPC between countries in the world at the under review year.  Because this number is highest and realistic number that any country can achieving to it.  For example Luxembourg in last decade almost in top of the BPC ranks.  Thus in GW index and in budget size index, the basis of B belong to Luxembourg and in a year belong to Norway. (For example it is 43000 us dollar per capita in 2016).

in next step, we catch ratio between any under review country and best budget per capita in the under review year. We mark best budget per capita by “bb” and mark under review country budget per capita by “xb”.  Then by following functions can get B or budget size index.

And if in 2017 Luxembourg BPC equal to 43000 dollar, and xb (for example turkey) country equal to 3300 dollar, then the B index of xb equal to 7/67.

Also we can calculating budget per land in any country and by study of it and comparison of bpl (budget per land) and bpc (with other), finding unbalance zone in any country. Because unbalanced zone, lead to undeveloped land.

For example China for 1m^2  pay 238  dollar and US  pay 359. UK pay 4494 and Canada pay 87 and Russia pay 12 US dollar.  These numbers shown us that you have owner of a little developed land or big undeveloped land.  For this reason, many of big Country trying centralized the budget too crowded land or city.  But in fact this policy lead to formation undeveloped zone on their country and of course this is lead to demographic gap.

All Variable of budget size index changes monthly, but we computing this component yearly.  Comparison between World country by B index, which in itself has a money exchange rate and population fluctuate, maybe one of the most accurate way for political economy analysis. We can say budget of the country and the deficit of it, is the fastest and accurate way for understanding what happened in any estate.

Type and size of the budgets can presentation to us the Country View about the internal and external events.  We can understand who counteries manage any cultural, political, scientific, social and any else matter program.

Also by study of any country budget, we can determine how much of their Revenue and budget, depend to any special goods or service.  For example in oil country determine how much of the budget and GW index and also PW index, depend to petroleum industry.  Because many of country think that many of goods just is an economic tools, and deeply they cannot understand this goods can how much effect on their political situation.

One of the practical ways for best management of budget is increasing of density. Because it’s lead to, upkeep and increase of country infrastructure efficiency.  And if also GDP per capita is lower than of BPC, it’s not a good sign. Our study proof GDP must at least, twice bigger than of BPC.  And if GDP per capita lower than of BPC , in practice we can say this country is broke.

Maybe when it’s happened, rebellion or Revolution is not unexpected.   If this country made up of several ethnically, maybe present situation lead to disintegration of country.  Even if their GDP bigger than of BPC , but that’s country experience unexpected failing in BPC, maybe its lead to deep crisis.

When Government pay budget in low-density place that has not economy justify, this is sign of government activity for creating political legitimacy.  In fact this pay lead to strengthen of CP (concentration of power), not increases of GDP. Population Density leads to people of land going to be like together. Then if LPC is low, it’s lead to state unity and saving BPC.

Δt index or Governance stability Index:

Second component of GW index is Δt (Delta t) index or Governance stability index.  This index explains the age of political system establishment in across the time.  This index calculated with a consensus number, that the treaty of Westphalia is appropriate benchmark for this purpose.  Because the treaty of Westphalia is the beginning of current world system and beginning of present country situation. The treaty of Westphalia signed in 371 (in 1648) years ago and for achieve to Δt, we must find under review country political system age.

In the next step, we must calculate the ratio of political system age with Treaty of Westphalia.  For example the Russia current political age equal to 28 years (After the Soviet dissolution with new political system that don’t like any past political system in Russia). The ratio of 28 to 371, equal with 7.54.  And in comparison with other country it’s not good number. (For example the uk Δt index is 84).

That for Russia in 2018:

And for UK in 2018:

The Δt index as a historical quantity, must study with other component of GW index, like as (B) budget size index and (CP) concentration of power.  In fact the combination of these factors can give us governmental weight index. We must know every political system Regent of a kind of thought about a social, ethnic, politics, economics and cultural interests.  And whatever it age is long, then the possibility of the Intellectuals and people thought changing is low.  And this political system and societies supposed stable.

In fact the age of any country shown us how they can resistance against crisis and unstable factors, and who they interact with land and population as a basic elements of country.  Even the age of country shown us how political system can interact with other country and state. This Factor shown us how the state can be survival.

The age of political system can sign the depth of nation-state concept between the people of land.  And also can sign of people unity and ability of them for facing with historical crisis.  The age of political system can sign of accurate understanding of national interest by people. Our study proof that, all of these have a meaningful relationship with the numbers of ethnical group in the country along the history.  Our studies proof, pure ethnic or a country with a low ethnic group (via superiority of one ethnic) can obtain a good number in Δt index.

The long age of political system in comparison with the Westphalia Treaty shown us that country has a good performance in governance and accuracy.  And they don’t trying for redefine any new place and position in political system. But in the Short age political system, most of the Society power focus on defining new political place and finding good governance system, then this Society pay many political cost for it.  Encounter, the long age political system Focus their power for development, then the concept of national interest in the country with shortage political system is very dump and confusing. In this system everyone fight for self, not for national interests.

Also the age of political system is the important factors for assessment of, that country how making a deep relation with other country.  Our study prove the long age country has a deep relation with other country and also playing as an important player in international relation (like the USA and UK).  Because the shortage country must pay extra cost for making relation, but old country just developing existence relation.

In long age country, people instead of changing political system, learn how solving the problem and correct available defect.  The Δt shows us the high GW index (governmental weight) is not achieving only with high economic income.  This component proof must of the power in countries, depend to mental element and Efficiency of political system.  Mental legitimacy cannot create with money and Stability of political system and Trust of people to it, can decrease the social, political and even economical cost of the state.

CP or The concentration of power

Authority is one of the important tools for government, in management of country and Society.  The excellent type of authority that is legitimate, displaying with concentration of power.  That’s mean is that, everyone know the central state manage everything in united land.

This component of GW index is real and it’s too strong and can forming alone all the structure of the state.  But if this component cannot getting together with other competent of GW index (B as an economic factor and then Δt as a mental Factor), in fact this state is autocratic state and this state cannot legitimate.

In GW index suppose, the position of this component is passive element, and suppose two other factors (B and Δt) is active element.  Then whatever B and delta t does not exist, it’s the sign of authority or concentration of power has a main rule in the form of GW index.  For this reason, if the country authority expanded to the all-area of the Land, then we suppose the CP equal with 100, unless contrary of it proofing.

CP sign of the ability of state for govern to all the area of land and Regent of state ability for security and political control of society.  This is the sign, that state can distribution of budget share of people in the across of land.  The CP, Regent of organized and distribution of power in the land.  If partly of land doesn’t control by central state, it’s lead to that state pay some part of budget and some part of power for restoration of that’s land. Thus it is make a sustainable gap in all part of GW, especially in B (budget size index). So this position always reduce the power of the state and country for developing and deviant their power for survival and rebuilding.

states always between of three component of GW index, choosing CP, when they cannot have all of them on one basket. CP basically equal to 100 and if a part of the land doesn’t control by central government, then must the percentage of it, reducing of 100 in formula. For example in nagorno karabakh case, suppose 19.42 percent of Azerbaijan land doesn’t control by them and that’s land occupied by Armenia state. Thus we can suppose that the CP of Azerbaijan equal to 80.58 percent. Although this procedure is not perfect way, but it is only quantitative way for calculating of CP and GW index.


Maynter socials