neither US, nor god can help Saudi Arabia if…

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Neither US, nor God can help Saudi Arabia if…(analysis of Saudi Arabia political weight index)

1.An important thing about latest affairs in Saudi Arabia (like Saudi oil attacks) is that this is not real attack, this is just a message via huge loud sound for all the world. Saudi Arabia is one of the countries that thinking can buy security from foreign source. But, in fact no one can buy sustainable security from foreign source and they must know security isn’t just technology and troops. The structure of power and governing process in KSA depend to some elements for save their security that consists of:

A: permanent oil industry performance (for this reason their economy swing is fully matched with oil price swing)

B: repression of national movement

C: make alliance against the common threat (in a day Israel and now Iran)

D: make profit for military industries in western powers (for attract their media and political support)

F: division of economic and political powers in Princes groups

G: define theological fundamentalism, which it has criticized by their new princess Bin Salman

2.KSA political weight index shows they had big fallen in last 20 years in PW index. In 2000 Saudi Arabia PW index equal to 3100, which it was in 2018, with 160% fallen in compare to 2000, declined to 1192. They had just in last year 60% fallen in their own political weight (PW) index. We think that this is a confusing issue because no one of countries hadn’t same situation, unless the war-torn countries. the big question is that this fallen was came from where?, the answer is that when countries going for development, but instead of pass development process you buy weapon and security, as a result, you lag behind and even face to Fallen.

3.This is clear that Saudi Arabia had real challenges on the national income, especially in budget Revenue. We think that defined problems buy Iran and kingdom succession crisis lead to Saudi Arabia political weight index fallen. This is very important that we know security problem for solving need to money and decrease any state potentials for growth. Soon or later they need to effective and real negotiation with Iran, which important subject of negotiation will relevant to their National interests.

4. Saudi Arabia for retrieve its own weight, at last need to 6 years, of course after make a peace with Iran. They must know that even not USA, nor god cannot help them, if they cannot make a peace with Iran. It seems that Yemen and Ansarullah just a part of confrontation puzzle and it can be very complicate in comparison to present situation. The successful policy of Iran for controlling of Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas (Iran arms or resistance group) push Iran to define a similar model for KSA (in here Ansarullah). If they cannot make a deal with Iran, then they must fight for ever.

5.Saudi Arabia also had increased flow in population, which it seems that the Democratic demands had growth on them. Saudi Arabia in present time are free of nationalism and this is make a dark insight for KSA. KSA had 10 million growth in population amount just in 18 years, which this shows their rapid growth in population.

6.Their revenue in Budget and also the GDP had big fluctuates in last years. Whatever, the budget and GDP had increase flow in last 3 years in KSA, but it is standing so far with ideal point, which it happened in 2012. By attention to present situation they will still buying security, not achieve to development.

7.Saudi Arabia PW index shows to us only 45% of political weight index body shaped of the governmental weight (GW) index. It is for low human resource capacity and weak government functions against their wide territory. Bin Salman had some programs and Idea for pushing KSA to achieve development, but by attention to their fight with littoral States (like Yemen and Iran) and so competition with other States (like UAE), it hasn’t good look in Saudi Arabia.

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Maysam Araee Daronkola


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