A good Asian model for politics and economics (S.korea Political weight index)
1.By attention to growth flow of government ability in S.korea, their political weight index had increased flow in last 20 years. In 2018 S.korea PW index (political weight index) was equal to 46, which it was equal to 36 in 2000 and it faced to 27% growth in last 2 decades. Their PW trend shown as they had fallen at 3 points in the period of 2002-2004, 2007-2009 and in 2015. As we know S.korea is industrial country and the world economy crisis has straight effect on their economy. Then we can say that at last the political weight swing in 2007 raised from world economy crisis but in 2015 it’s not only for this reason. The social distress and political issues has its share on 2015 political weight fallen. Also it seems that they had low effectiveness of oil price fluctuate, but low oil price exactly help them for fasting growth.
2.Because of low geopolitical realities role and high role of government abilities (GW index) in S.korean PW index in last 2 decades, more than of 80% S.korean political weight index shaped of GW index and it will has increasing flow. Little territory with low mineral resources lead to high dependency of S.korea economy to foreign resources. It seems that in next decade they will increase their imports of raw materials to more than 2 times bigger in compare to present time.
2.The nature of countries with high GW index share in PW index body is that for lack of resource they need to other reach resource countries. In S.korea case the have many strong competitors such as Japan and China. This is obvious that their regional policy can shape their economic policy and international personality. Because all of them has very familiar structure in industrial issues, not politics.
4.At now they have 51 million population that their expect will comes to higher standards of welfare in comparison to present time. Their population growth rate is reasonable and its slow trend in growth, shows us their expectations and reactions to economic issues. If S.korean government hasn’t systematic and reasonable response to their people needs, maybe S.korea will face to population contraction in next decades. At now they have skilled human resources, but for competition with China, they are so expensive. Although by good try in branding, they find strong buyers in Asia, but they must know their competitors doesn’t stay for them.
5.S.korea will face to some challenge in next years in political weight growth, but we anticipate that they still will have increasing flow. Postindustrial issues such as welfare matters that we will describe about them, security issues, S.korea-US free trade agreement and China-US tensions in politics and economy, aging population, income distribution and economic gap between people is their mains challenge for next years.
6.The high growth of S.korea based on some reason that consists of: a: high efficiency of people and government b: proportional growth of population along with economy c: stable position of national currency and always growth on people and government income d: political and military covers from US side e: low price of oil in last years f: political stability and promote of democracy
7.We anticipate that S.korea growth in political weight index and other subsidiary components (such as GW index and its economic elements) will be continue in next years (approximately 1.5% for each year for political weight index). Although they have a notable and clear distance with welfare state, but they walk in right way. We think that China-US challenges will can change to a real tragedy for S.korea, and also by good management can change to great opportunity for S.korea. By ideal managing of science and industry, they can use of china cheap workers and china big markets platform. Especially that china chose oriental policy. Also, Asia (central and west) can provide S.korea raw material, if USA let them chose impartially policy. We think that USA use of North Korea threats for controlling of S.korea economic and political policy and if it will be happen, then S.korea will has hard choice.