Hard problems of geopolitics in Brazil (analysis of Brazil Governmental Weight index and Budget issues)
1.The GW index in Brazil, like the political weight index flow, had decreased direction in last 8 years. The GW index give us the general view about Brazil government ability for policy. The analysis of Brazil GW index proof that their GW index are very impressible of their economy and political stability. at know, their GW index is 27 of 100, and in comparison to High Point in last years (in 2011) it had 15% decrease, but in comparison to 18 years ago, their governmental weight (GW index ) index reach to little progress.
2.a notable point about Brazil GW index and its swings is that, in 2018 the concentration of power (CP, which this is the represent of authority) shaped 46% of the their governmental structure and this amount of hard power (Authority), unlike to most European country and North American countries, are normal amount for South American countries. Our study proof that more than of 40% in GW structure of South American countries belong to the hard power and authority tools for Society management. Also, the share of B index, as economy all government financial tools for Society management, in brazil was equal to 19% of GW body, which this is located in a familiar range that it has epidemic in South America. Finally the share of Δt or governance stability index, which this component represent of governance legitimacy among the people, shaped 35% of Brazil GW body.
3.The CP or concentration of power in Brazil, which it is represent of hard power in their territory, almost was around 46% of GW index in last 2 decades. The lower point of this index was in 2011, and the highest point of CP was in 2005. The trend of Brazil situation in CP proof that, it had decreased in comparison to last decades. This is obvious that their economy development lead to political and human resource progress in Brazil. it can be Saied with Confidence, while their situation in democracy and rule of law is better than of every last time, but in comparison to developed country, they must working harder. They hadn’t fallen, but their working on the soft element of power are slow.
4.The share of Δt or governance stability index, which this is represent of governance system legitimacy among the people, was shaped 36% of their GW body (governmental weight). The Brazil governance age is 129 and it can be categorized as an old age governance. Then, their government duty for ruling of law is very easier than of young countries. Stability in governance system enable them for depth reforms in last undeveloped rules and let him to focus on the improvement in politics and economy. This is shown us their political society resolve the problems, not change the political system.
5.The share of B or budget size index in Brazil at 2018 shaped 19% of their GW body. It had fallen in comparison to 2011, which on that year B index shaped 22% of the governmental weight in Brazil. Then, Brazil lose some part of economy tools in policy and it had replaced by authority. This is inevitable that, when you lose economy tools for public management, then you must replace it by force or last credits.
6.As we Said, the challenge in national currency value and its unstable situation lead to present situation in Brazil, which it had many other reasons. The trend of Brazil national budget shown us the national budget in BRL had 450% growth in 2 decade. But, is it normal growth? And this is happened by which of economic backing? This is obvious that, because of their economic growth, most of the needs to goods and service are provided from national and internal source, but this is just a part of realities. In fact they think by national currency can support their growing population demands, but this is impossible mission and lead to unreal and noncompetitive growth in economy.
7.The trend of their National budget in US dollar prove our claim. In 2018 their budget in dollar equal to 600 billion dollar and this is while, their budget in 2011 was equal to 900 billion dollar. In comparison to 2011 they have 50% fallen in their national budget in dollar. Also, it’s notable in 2018 they have 200% growth in comparison to 2000, which it had not harmonize with the BRL budget graph.
8.Their trend in BPC (budget per capita) shown us their population-based economic realities. In 20 years, they have just 136% growth in BPC, which it had so distance with the growth of national budget in BRL and dollar. Because in BPC we counted the growth of population amount. At 2018, The BPC in Brazil was equal to 2788 dollar for each person. It was in 2012 near to 4500 dollar (as a high point in last 2 decade). Brazil in last two decades had a notable fluctuate in BPC, and despite that they have growth, but for competition with new power in economy (like China), they need to much growth in economy. In last 8 years their GDP per capita faced with huge fallen, which present backward, at least need to one decade for restoring.
9.About Brazil, a sad subject is that they haven’t any progress in B index (or budget size index), which this index shown to us Brazil BPC distance with the best amount of BPC in under review year. In fact, B index mixed up BPC (budget per capita) with national currency worth and other country progress in government economic sector. The B index amount in Brazil at 2018 was equal to 6 of 100 which it had equal to B index amount in 2000. However, their B index reached to 9 of 100 in 2011, but along with budget Fallen and population growth, it had declined and back to the B index size in 20 years ago. At now we can claim their ability for making of welfare doesn’t any progress in compare with 20 years ago.