Not so well days of Brazil (Brazil political weight index analysis)

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Not so well days of Brazil (Brazil political weight index analysis)

  1. By looking to the Brazil geopolitical and political economy and analyzing of their political weight index (PW index), this is obvious that they have big fluctuate in political weight index at last 20 years. Their trend in political weight index shown us in 2018 their index, after a continuous fallen, stayed on 1088, which in comparison to 2011 (the highest point in last 20 years) it had decrease about 26%. Whatever, it’s notable that the widespread territory (8,515,767 km2) and big amount of population and natural resources (except oil and gas), along with acceptable amount of government ability (which Shown by GW index or governmental weight index,) lead to a large number in PW index for Brazil. (Although the PW index of countries is not comparable index with together)

2. The main reasons of Brazil political weight index fallen is

A: unbalanced growth in population and economic issues like GDP and national budget income

B: the Fallen of national currency value against international currency, especially dollars. They have big swing in national currencies worth and in 2018 they BRL price is located in lower stage of every last 20 years

C: like the most of countries, appearance of China in world economy lead to unwanted situation in Brazil. China industries lead to recession in many places, which Brazil wasn’t except of that. This is lead to inflation and other type of economy crisis live junk bond sell in Brazil.

D: the price of crude oil, directly and indirectly, effected on the price of goods and service

E: decrease of LPC (land per capita) and governmental weight index at a time.

3. By analyzing of political weight components (which consist of GW index and LPC) in Brazil, we can say by attention to The Rising amount of population and the increased flow of GW (governmental weight) share in political weight body, they have a good look in the future. But it seems that, maybe the political challenges and corruptions in Brazil will lead to stop or Fallen on their political weight index. Also, at now their LPC (land per capita) is equal to 40 m2 per person and it’s shaped more than a 50% of Brazil political weight index. This means is that, at least 50% of Brazil political weight was depend to their geopolitical realities. But in comparison to their LPC (land for capita) in 2001(which that is shaped 55% of their political weight), at now it has 6% fallen and it decreased to 52% of political weight body. Then, we can claim that they work on their human resource and government ability. In last 20 years, the rule of governmental weight, as an un-geopolitical factor, faced to increase flow, which this is good.

4. Brazil population at now equal to 213,000,000, which in comparison to 2000, it has 21% growth. In 18 years, they faced to 37 million people in new generation, which they must thinking for their needs. The imports basket of Brazil proof that they are capital importer of medicine facilities, infrastructure and petroleum products, which this is relevant to the human developing procedure. The present flow lead to stability of population efficiency in economy, although the people efficiency had a notable swing in last years. Brazil faced to two times growth in GDP per capita in comparison to 2000, although they have more than pf 60% fallen in GDP per capita, in comparison to 2011.

5.we anticipate that the political weight index of Brazil in next years will hasn’t growth and by attention to the USA and china Confrontation in economy and politics, and the crisis of oil markets, even they will experiment the Fallen in PW index. Also the decrease flow of GDP in Brazil and the growth flow of population, makes the undesirable situation in Brazil for the short next years.

MAYNTER

maysam araee daronkola


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