the France situation is not bad, they have just a challenge (analysis of France political weight index)
1.France political weight that configure of the geopolitical reality and government ability index، has a decline flow in last 20 years.(it is happened for main member of EU). The mains factor for this event is: A.increasing of population and decreasing of LPC ( it’s led to decline The Resource and shaping problem in Estates sector and all relevant sector to it) B.decline of euro value against dollar and then hard fluctuates in dollar budget of France. C.Unchanged in bpc (budget per capita) in France from 2008 (even the decline of it across this period, And decline of GDP per capita) D.After world economic crisis in 2008, France couldn’t retrieve theirs economy. E.Decline in budget size index along all the past 20 years (they retrieve it in 2017 and 2018) but they has a long distance in all the time from welfare state economy.
2.France for resolving of current problems needs more cheap raw material and competitive industry. In a short time and for emergency proceedings, they need control their population growth and even condense their population. Also they must limit their international adventures.
3.From 2000 to 2005 France lose 4/7% of political weight. This flow controlling from 2007 to 2015 and after a shocking fluctuate in 2016, retrieved in last 2 years. It seems that it’s not based on fundamental proceedings, because in 2018 this index declined again and at now, it’s equal with their weight in 2015. Our prospect is that in the next year, France PW also has decline flow or in optimistically situation, retrieve to 2017 amount.
4.Almost in last 20 years the 60% (at least) of political weight (PW index) body of France, shaped of governmental weight (GW index). In comparison with industrial country and most of European countries, it’s normal amount and so it has increased flow in last 20 years. But we must know the economic factor doesn’t any effect to this trend and even lead to control of GW index increase flow.
5.The latest events in France (Yellow vests movement) is fully detect with France fluctuate in political weight (PW index) trend. when we have a hard fluctuate & sudden fall in pw index or governmental weight (GW) index in a year, we must wait for see some reaction from population.
6.France next move for retrieve their political weight maybe consist of; A.use a more authority (because they think do enough economic actions) B.They will do Superficial movement in economic sector, but their problem with China and other emerging economic power’s and new USA with Trump, cannot solving via this proceedings. Their problem shaped in long-term, since they were present in EU. It seems that they lose their weight in EU for EU up keeping. C. working on their infrastructure for come back to international trade procedure and sells more products and makes more jobs. euro currency has a special requirements that most of them, out of France will and in any economical action, hundreds of eyes from EU watching them. They cannot do anything.
7.The People of France needs more money and welfare. They comparison their self with other people of Europe (like Norway, Luxembourg or Switzerland). It’s obvious that the government ability in France doesn’t growth with their geopolitical changing. But, nonetheless the France situation is not bad, they have just challenge.
maysam araee daronkola