The government’s ability index (government weight index – GW index) of the Russian Federation (1)
MAYNTER – the Russian government weight has increased significantly in 2018 and was equal to 1.59%, meanwhile, the government’s ability index in Russia in 2017 compared to 2016 decreased by 1.31%.
It was assumed that with continuing sanctions from the West against Russia, the government weight of this country will still decline, but we see that the government’s ability index in Russia has increased under the conditions of sanctions and thanks to the increase in oil prices from $ 30 to $ 50.
Control over inflation in Russia in 2017 through contractionary fiscal policy can be seen as another reason for the growth of the Russian government weight. This led to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar.
The reasonable measures taken by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and his economic team and also rise in oil prices has made positive government weight in Russia in 2017.
With the continuation of the current trend in the global economy and with the adaptation of Russia with the sanctions imposed on it, we will probably see an increase in this index next year.
A study of the situation in Russia shows that the more attention is paid to economic factors, the higher will be the political weight of the country.
Taking into account the fact that improvement of this index was achieved due to external factors, such as oil and gas prices, the increase of this index in Russia cannot be considered as a stable factor.
The best increase in government weight will occur when this increase is achieved by increasing the active population and increasing the efficiency of population. While we don’t observe it in Russia.
An important part of the government weight in Russia depends on the economic situation outside of this country and world markets and this sad fact defines two scenarios: 1) Russia will respond to demands of the international community and will cooperate with West more than before or 2) Russia will manage international events in such a way that these events ultimately will lead to an increase in the price of oil and gas or to an increase in arms sales as the two main sources of income in Russia.
The share of Russia’s government weight in the entire political structure of this country has grown by 1.3%.
The government’s ability index (government weight index – GW index) of the Russian Federation (2)
MAYNTER – The analysis of the dependent variables that make up the government’s ability index in Russia, shows that the role of authority in relations between the people and the government has declined by 3.3%.
Thus, it can be said that the Russian government in 2017 restored its legitimate and soft power, which, of course, was not strange on the eve of the presidential elections. On the other hand, the Russians, in order to continue fighting against the hegemony of the West and advance the war in Syria, need to satisfy their own population.
In practice, increasing the share of the legitimate and soft power of the Russian government in the structure of government weight of this federation did not lead to the reformation of the demographic pyramid of the 27-year-old federation.
Despite the fact that one year has been added to the political life of this Federation, but we observe that the share of the government’s sustainability index in this Federation in the entire structure of the government weight of this country decreased by 1.3%.
Thus, it can be said that an important part of soft power of Russians and/or beautiful language of Russians in dealing with their peoples depends on the growth of oil prices and other economic factors. Also, an important part of raising this index is the result of a decline in European economic power. In fact, it can be said that the distance between Russia and the west was reduced in 2018.
The FIFA World Cup can be considered as one of the factors that led the Russians to engage more in the field of economics and restore their political and security image and reputation.
As it was said, one cannot ignore the role of optimal management and also Russia’s contractionary economy in managing the crises created in this Federation in recent years. By preventing the collapse of the ruble value, the Russians were able to return more easily to the cycles of competition with the US and Europeans.
Comparison of Russia’s GDP per capita with the government weight index indicates that GDP growth in Russia has a desirable political function. Although it should be noted that oil prices have increased by an average of 40%, but Russia’s GDP has increased by less than 20 percent and has reached from $ 8,800 to $ 10,200.
As we pointed out in the analysis of last year, the Russians have been forced to react and be flexible towards the west in order to restore their political weight and government weight.
Reduction of tension in Eastern Europe, Russia’s cooperation with the West in North Korea and Yemen, control and containment of the level of reaction against US in Syria, restoration of political and economic relations with the Arab world and development of relations with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus are among the factors that Russia used to restore government weight.
We must not forget that the figures are less likely to lie to us. Each country needs to restore its political weight and government weight, and therefore, by studying these factors, we can predict the reaction and behavior of countries.